Location Scouting on the Third Day of Spring

This week I put on my real estate hat and set out to scout neighborhoods and intersections in SF, a test run for when it comes time to look for a space for my cafe.

Like a scientist, I hunkered down on a corner of Irving and 9th Ave in the Inner Sunset and got to observing. No hypothesis, procedure, or list of materials here, but it was a legitimate study with a clear strategy. The important first step was choosing a comp restaurant, based on concept, cuisine, popularity, ticket price, etc. A patch of cement in front of a storefront on the north side of Irving afforded me a pretty clear view of my comp, Yumma's Mediterranean, across the street. With that variable assigned, I aimed to tick off foot traffic, with one column for every person who walked by the comp, and another for people who actually entered the comp.

I'd come a little unprepared for the sunny day in long pants and a lack of hat which required me to shield face with my scarf. The sun singed my thighs through my dark jeans but I couldn't bring myself to go into the shade (Now that I don't work in an office, I have to embrace weekday tanning!). Sitting there with my shoes off (sorry mom, it was hot) I felt like the kids Joan Didion wrote about on Haight St. @ Ashbury in the 60's. As I people watched, with my new Skull Candy headphones taking care of the soundtrack ("Dreams Old Men Dream" by Cold War Kids is my favorite song this week) I wondered how I might be hired as a full-time, salaried location scout.

Every experiment has a sticking point, and for me it was the N Judah Muni line (my personal favorite for its route past doggy Duboce park and all the way west to Ocean Beach) passing by every few minutes and blocking the middle of the street. How could I know, for the moments the train was stopped in front of me, how many people were walking past or going into the comp across the street? In a breakthrough moment that would make Sir Isaac Newton proud I decided to adjust my study to count people on my side of the street for those brief periods.

Now it's time to assess results: In the two hour period of my study, 590 people walked past the comp restaurant, and 45 people walked into it. Is there some crazy mathematical equation that can take data points like the weather on the day of scouting, the day of the week, or which side of the street the comp is on, then input traffic count numbers, and spit out a verdict of whether this location is a good bet for our business?